Its time to start the speculation about the future of the San Francisco Giants. I'm not talking about what we are going to do in the current season, but how the 2013 offseason will shape up. The Giants for the most part will keep most of the team past this year, including most of the infield, but there are some major cornerstones of the current roster that will create some tough decisions from the brain trust of Sabean, Barr and Bochy. The key G-men who will be under consideration for roster spots are:
RF - Hunter Pence
SP- Tim Lincecum
SP- Barry Zito**
SP- Ryan Vogelsong**
RP - Javier Lopez
RP- Jose Mijares
OF- Andres Torres
OF- Gregor Blanco**
1B- Brandon Belt^
SS- Brandon Crawford^
** - Team option for 2014
^ - not enough MLB service time for free agency
99.5% sure that Crawford and Belt are being resigned, so that takes care of the infield. The relievers are a crap shoot, but if I had to guess we're going to resign both on 2-3 year deals. Pence will be signed to an extension in a Rowand-esque deal that works out better for us. Pence has to be a Giant. He doesn't fit on any other team....
But the real question is what on earth are we going to do with 3/5 of the starting rotation. Zito is on pace to have the Zito-est of all his seasons. Vogey is injured and was not doing particularly well when he was healthy. My guess is that Zito is bought out and Vogey is a wait and see prospect for the rest of the season. The two options to replace them that are currently on the 40 man roster are Mike Kickham and Eric Surkamp. Those two names don't send giddy chills up my spine. The next option is to look at the free agent market. The Giants have not been big players in the free agent market lately, which is probably a good thing due to the glory that was the Rowand and Zito signings. If anything Sabean has proved that he can pick up a spare part in the offseason that doesn't really get anybody's blood pumping and winds up having significant impact (see 2010 Andres Torres.)
So who might the Giants be interested in? My first instinct would be to say nobody and they keep the band together for one more hurrah. But if they were to enter that special dating cesspool we call free-agency (how'd spurning the Giants work out for ya' Jason Bay?) My guess is that they'd take a long look at these three guys: Matt Garza, Aj Burnett and Ervin Santana. Each of them is looking for a multi year contract heading into their late 20's and I'm not so sure the Giants are going to be willing to schill out the big bucks for the front end pitchers.
If Timmy isn't back to his old self by the end of the season I have no idea what his contract offers are going to be. The Giants have spent a lot of money on "Ace" pitchers over the last 5 years and got the performance and domination of a good #5 pitcher. Barry Zito has amassed a 4.5 total WAR since he signed with the Giants. A starter level pitcher counts for 2 WAR a season so Zito has pitched at -9.5 wins above his position as a giant. Not good. Especially not good for $119 million dollars. The past 2 years Big Time Timmy Jim has earned $40 million and counted for -2.5 wins. Not only that but his stats are trending downward after his Cy Young seasons in 08-09. So what do we do with the face of the franchise? If I were king of the world I'd sign him as a 6th starter coming out of the pen as a shutdown specialist a la 2012 playoffs. I'd then go out and take a flier on another starter who is also being chased by ghosts and has no idea why he is no longer the same player, the one and only Roy Halladay.
Think about it, it makes total sense. Bring back the gang (minus Zito) and take a huge one year gamble that either Timmy, Roy, or both can find a suitable exorcist and carry the Giants rotation back to its proper place at the top of the baseball world.
Game is about to start so I'll hold off on breaking down what $$ I think it would take to sign each of these pitchers.
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