Pablo Sandoval will continue to have weight problems, but won’t break a hammate bone. Tim Lincecum won’t be terrible. Brandon Crawford will win the Gold Glove.
I know, I know, pretty bold; but these predictions were arrived at after a careful analysis of the data available on the interwebs. Lets dive right in... first of all unless the Ailuropoda melanoleuca has an extra hammate bone that I don’t know of then we’re clear for a full year of pandemonium. Panda came on strong during the September surge and had an incredible run in the playoffs, but he did encounter some early power outage at the plate. His slugging percentage dropped more than 100 point from his breakout years of ‘09 & ’11 where his slg% was around .550. What was most telling from looking at the fangraphs data for Panda was his swing percentage. I expected his swing percentage to be astronomically high, but I didn’t expect his numbers to increase from his 2010 season. What is most telling about Panda’s unique talents on his swing style is how his teammates plan to pitch to him in the World Baseball Classic. Both Vogelsong and Casilla have joked about planting fastballs right down the middle which seams to be the only pitch Panda won’t swing at. So what does all this mean? I’m guessing probably will be able to stay on the field for 135-145 games this season, and increase his power to .530 slg% and a BAIP of .320.
Speaking of bounce-back players we can only hope that Timmy’s comeback is as successful or better than Panda’s response to his 2010 season. I don’t think that Timmy’s problems were a symptom of poor conditioning but rather a lost identity and some bad luck. Everyone has focused on Lincecum’s decline in velocity, but I think that it is only a piece of the puzzle. His loss in velocity probably had to do with more of his mistake pitches being hit for home runs than previous years. He had poor command on some of his pitches which allowed more walks and more home runs. But the number of pitches per plate appearance was the same as last year, so what was the difference? There was a significant jump in the number of fly balls that were hit for home runs, overall home run percentage, an increase in walk percentage and line drives. If you walk more guys and then get pounded for line drives rather than weak pop-ups you are going to have problems. The rest of his numbers are slightly higher for the most part, but what is surprising is how similar the numbers are to the rest of his career. So what does this mean? Its time for Timmy to take a page from Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong and join the freakish outlier group. Matt Cain is known for his insistence on defying stats by not allowing fly balls for home runs. Vogelsong is known for defying sabermaticians for not allowing hits with runners on base. If Tim can take some of those qualities into his pitching repetuaire I think he can still get by with his stuff. His contact percentage on pitches thrown, strikes thrown and swing and misses were all actually close to his career averages. Timmies problem came when they bats made contact with the ball. Even if he returns to his previous strike-out numbers he’s going to have to find a way to induce poor contact.
Brandon Crawford had a stellar second half on defense last year and showed why he’s earned his nickname as “the professor.” I fully expect a Gold Glove year from him. There were countless times last early year when Crawford was rushing his throws. I think it was a symptom of a young player who had confidence in his ability and tried to overcompensate for his shortcomings at the plate. Once July and August rolled around Crawford settled in and was hitting more and the errors dropped. I don’t know if there is a correlation between the two, but he definitely put it together and ended the season as one of the top defensive short stops. Crawford has the ability to not embarrass himself at the plate, but his defense can more than make-up for any other shortcomings.
Coming soon: Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt will be fidgety and weird and the Crazy Horse outfield will be fucking awesome!
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