Captain Obvious presents Fearless Predictions Part I

Pablo Sandoval will continue to have weight problems, but won’t break a hammate bone. Tim Lincecum won’t be terrible. Brandon Crawford will win the Gold Glove. 

I know, I know, pretty bold; but these predictions were arrived at after a careful analysis of the data available on the interwebs. Lets dive right in... first of all unless the Ailuropoda melanoleuca has an extra hammate bone that I don’t know of then we’re clear for a full year of pandemonium. Panda came on strong during the September surge and had an incredible run in the playoffs, but he did encounter some early power outage at the plate. His slugging percentage dropped more than 100 point from his breakout years of ‘09 & ’11 where his slg% was around .550. What was most telling from looking at the fangraphs data for Panda was his swing percentage. I expected his swing percentage to be astronomically high, but I didn’t expect his numbers to increase from his 2010 season. What is most telling about Panda’s unique talents on his swing style is how his teammates plan to pitch to him in the World Baseball Classic. Both Vogelsong and Casilla have joked about planting fastballs right down the middle which seams to be the only pitch Panda won’t swing at. So what does all this mean? I’m guessing probably will be able to stay on the field for 135-145 games this season, and increase his power to .530 slg% and a BAIP of .320. 

Speaking of bounce-back players we can only hope that Timmy’s comeback is as successful or better than Panda’s response to his 2010 season. I don’t think that Timmy’s problems were a symptom of poor conditioning but rather a lost identity and some bad luck. Everyone has focused on Lincecum’s decline in velocity, but I think that it is only a piece of the puzzle. His loss in velocity probably had to do with more of his mistake pitches being hit for home runs than previous years.  He had poor command on some of his pitches which allowed more walks and more home runs. But the number of pitches per plate appearance was the same as last year, so what was the difference? There was a significant jump in the number of fly balls that were hit for home runs, overall home run percentage, an increase in walk percentage and line drives. If you walk more guys and then get pounded for line drives rather than weak pop-ups you are going to have problems. The rest of his numbers are slightly higher for the most part, but what is surprising is how similar the numbers are to the rest of his career. So what does this mean? Its time for Timmy to take a page from Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong and join the freakish outlier group. Matt Cain is known for his insistence on defying stats by not allowing fly balls for home runs. Vogelsong is known for defying sabermaticians for not allowing hits with runners on base. If Tim can take some of those qualities into his pitching repetuaire I think he can still get by with his stuff. His contact percentage on pitches thrown, strikes thrown and swing and misses were all actually close to his career averages. Timmies problem came when they bats made contact with the ball. Even if he returns to his previous strike-out numbers he’s going to have to find a way to induce poor contact. 

Brandon Crawford had a stellar second half on defense last year and showed why he’s earned his nickname as “the professor.” I fully expect a Gold Glove year from him. There were countless times last early year when Crawford was rushing his throws. I think it was a symptom of a young player who had confidence in his ability and tried to overcompensate for his shortcomings at the plate. Once July and August rolled around Crawford settled in and was hitting more and the errors dropped. I don’t know if there is a correlation between the two, but he definitely put it together and ended the season as one of the top defensive short stops. Crawford has the ability to not embarrass himself at the plate, but his defense can more than make-up for any other shortcomings.

Coming soon: Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt will be fidgety and weird and the Crazy Horse outfield will be fucking awesome!

The idiot save

My plan to write about the ridiculous surplus of pitchers on the Dodgers staff was usurped by Grant Brisbee today. If you aren’t reading his blog McCovey Chronicles you are missing out. Grant’s blog is a fun read especially if you hate Matt Latos. Seriously, that guy sucks, although he did get his comeuppance during game 5 of the NLDS. Watch the clip of Posey’s grand-slam with a careful eye on the catcher Ryan Hannigan. As soon as the ball leaves Posey’s bat he stands up and starts shaking his head in disbelief. Even thinking about it gives me that warm tingly glow that you can only get with postseason greatness. Speaking of postseason greatness, lets take a moment and appreciate the stellar performance of Brandon Phillips. I have never had so much respect for a player on another team. He annihilated the Giants in that series. Really all you need to know is this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25384569&c_id=mlb

Good god. I have no idea why this guy isn’t a bigger star.

That’s enough about people who aren’t a part of the G-men. Onto what is more than likely going to be my biggest issue with the season. What in the world is wrong with MLB managers and their archaic notion of “The Save”? It is seriously the dumbest statistic in a sport that has an abundance of stupid stats and acronyms. Whip, babip, fip, fap, era+, war, re24 and a host of others that you need to have a math major in order to comprehend what the hell is going on. The reason why I’m going to go nuts this year is because from all accounts it seems like Bochy is no longer going to run a closer by comittee. Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez and Romo have proved clutch in pressure situations, so why not use them by the best match-up? The only positive with Bochy going old-school is that we’ll probably get more Romo which is ALWAYS a good thing. But his elbow is “barky” and I will flip the fuck out if he Marmadukes it in June. The other thing I hate about designated closers is that not all saves happen in the 9th inning. Sometimes you have to shut the door in the 7th or 8th inning, so why not use your best relievers in those situations to kill any potential rallies. 

Pitcher and catchers, pitchers and catchers, pitchers and catchers... and a World Series.

This blog took a tumble last year after I decided to move away from the bay area and up to the Great Northwest. But I’m back, and it’s almost spring. We are getting to the point of the year where I get antsy and start scouring the interwebs for tid-bits like “Andres Torres drank 2 mountain dews in the clubhouse and then began to samba with a very disturbed and confused Buster Posey.” I also start to expect daily reports on the condition of Timmy’s delivery and how Bumgardner swears he didn’t blow his nose all off-season in preparation for his snot rockets. Alas these are not the reports of early spring.